Before students even submit their first college application, I am often struck by how
many families begin the process with firm expectations about their college costs. Too
often, I listen to early conversations about college grounded not in outcomes, but in
(incorrect) assumptions. The most common declaration I hear is, “we can’t consider that
college; it’s too expensive.”
That reaction is understandable on the surface. College sticker prices are daunting.
They are also very misleading. In turn, families are wise to be mindful of costs as they
consider their options. But eliminating colleges based solely on sticker prices, before a
student has even applied, will limit college options and can result in families paying way
more than necessary.
Admission decisions and financial aid offers are painstakingly difficult to predict with any
precision. College admissions and aid is rife with uncertainty, especially before students
submit their applications and parents complete their FAFSA. Even experienced
professionals are routinely dumbfounded by college decisions. Wait, an applicant with a
4.3 got waitlisted and a 3.4 got admitted with a scholarship?!?
Recently, a student I know gained admission to a Top 25 college while being waitlisted
by another institution ranked outside the Top 200. Another student received a $35,000
annual scholarship from one college and no merit aid at all from that college’s top
competitor. Nobody could have predicted either result. These two stories are not
outliers; they are examples of a system that is wildly variable and institution specific.
Sticker price, in particular, is a terrible indicator of what families ultimately will pay out of
pocket each year. The average family pays less than half of private college costs. And
colleges differ dramatically in how they award institutional aid, how they assess financial
need, and how they value academic achievement, leadership, or extracurricular talents.
In many cases, colleges with higher published prices offer the most generous awards,
while lower-priced institutions provide little to no assistance or heavy loans. Until
applications are submitted and offers are received, affordability is impossible to know
with confidence.
This is not an argument for ignoring cost. Instead, it is a call to sequence decisions
appropriately. Early in the process, the goal should be exploration and information-
gathering, not elimination. Real decisions about affordability should be made later…
after admission and financial aid offers provide clear data.
There are strategies for managing uncertainty in college admissions, and one of the
most important is constructing a broad, well-considered list of colleges. By keeping
options open and resisting the urge to “count your chickens before they hatch” or balk at
“sky rocketing sticker prices,” families preserve their flexibility, leverage, and choice.
Submitting a broad range of applications and filing the FAFSA ealy are critical steps to
increasing opportunities and understanding affordability. Make cost assumptions or
decisions before taking those steps only limits choices.
Fitz has dedicated the entirety of his 28 year career to encouraging higher education opportunities. He worked in the Vanderbilt, Duke Law and St. Lawrence admissions offices prior to serving as an enrollment management consultant for 200+ selective colleges around the country. He created Find The Right College to make trustworthy college counseling more accessible. Fitz is also the father of two teens so he also understands first-hand the challenges associated with a college search.
